Chapter 04
Directional public numbers
Why public ROI calculators have a distinct role in the conversation, and how to use them without confusing education with quoting.
01
What a directional number is for
A public ROI number is educational. It uses industry-typical assumptions to give a buyer a feel for the shape of the value before any project-specific data exists. It is not a quote and should never be presented as one. The role of the public number is to make the conversation possible — to move a buyer from never having considered the economics to having a rough mental anchor — not to settle the conversation. A buyer who sees a directional figure together with a clear note of what would change in a project-specific model is better armed than one who is given either alone. The framing matters. A web page that says a typical mid-sized contractor sees somewhere between 4x and 9x return on a two-year contract is honest. A web page that says you will see 7.2x return is dishonest, because nobody knows that yet, including the publisher. The same logic applies inside the buyer organisation. An owner´s rep doing a first pass for the board needs a directional figure to know whether the conversation is worth having. A 4x to 9x band tells them yes, the order of magnitude justifies a deeper look. A polished 7.2x figure tells them yes — and tempts them to skip the deeper look, which is exactly the failure mode the directional number is supposed to avoid. The discipline serves both publisher and reader by keeping the depth of the next conversation honest.
02
How to publish a directional model honestly
A directional model should disclose its limits on the page where it is read. The assumptions used. The ranges around them. The disclaimer that project-specific data will refine the picture. The disclosure does not undermine the model; it strengthens it. A buyer who sees the limits acknowledged tends to trust the model more, not less. A workable shape: name the typical contract size assumed, the typical reporting frequency assumed, the typical loaded rates assumed, and the typical workflow run-rate. Show the inputs as bands. Show the output as a band. State on the page that a project-specific case will narrow the band by replacing typical inputs with project facts. A buyer who reads this once tends to be a better counterparty for the rest of the procurement, because they have already learned to expect bands rather than points. A specific construction works well in practice. The page presents three pre-built scenarios — a typical residential build, a typical mid-sized commercial fitout, a typical infrastructure programme — each with named inputs and a banded output. The buyer self-selects the closest scenario. The page makes it explicit that the closest scenario is still typical, not theirs. The next click takes them to a workshop request for the project-specific case. That construction is honest because it teaches the buyer the structure of the model rather than just delivering a number. Buyers who arrive at the workshop having read it tend to ask better questions and build better cases internally.
03
When the directional number must give way
The directional model should hand over to a project-specific case before procurement, certainly before contract. The shape of the model is the same; the inputs become facts rather than industry estimates. The width of the range narrows. The case is then ready for the finance partner´s scrutiny. A directional model presented at the procurement stage as if it were a quote is the fastest way to lose finance trust permanently. The handover is procedural. The directional page links to the project-specific template. The sales conversation includes a named workshop where project facts are gathered. The finance team sees the project-specific case with its sources visible and its bands narrower than the directional version. If the project-specific number is materially worse than the directional one, that finding is reported. The buyer keeps trust in the publisher precisely because the publisher refused to pretend the directional number applied. A useful internal rule is that no proposal pricing leaves the building without a project-specific case attached. If the project-specific case has not yet been built, the proposal does not go. That rule is unpopular with sales teams in week one and unanimously supported in year two, because the close rate on proposals with attached project-specific cases is materially higher than on proposals built around directional figures, and the post-sale relationship is calmer because the buyer is not surprised by the gap between marketing claim and reality.
04
Anchoring effects and how to manage them
Directional numbers anchor. A buyer who has read a 7x figure on a website will mentally compare any project-specific case to that anchor. If the project-specific case lands at 4.2x, the buyer feels disappointed even when the case is genuinely strong. Manage the anchor by showing the directional figure as a band — say, 4x to 9x — and by stating that the lower end of the band is more typical for the project type the buyer is asking about. The buyer then arrives at the project-specific workshop with realistic expectations. Anchoring is not solved by hiding the directional figure; it is solved by widening it honestly. The same logic applies internally. An owner´s rep who has been told a portfolio level number for a year will compare every project-specific case to it. Set the anchor wide. Adjust it as evidence accumulates. A practical hygiene measure: every public directional figure carries a published date and an explicit reference to the assumptions it was built on. When project-specific cases start landing, the directional figure is updated to reflect the average of those cases rather than the original aspirational range. The update is noted publicly. Buyers and internal stakeholders see the discipline operating. The directional band naturally narrows as evidence accumulates, which is exactly the behaviour a buyer would expect from a model that is being maintained rather than marketed.
05
Governance: keeping the public and project-specific worlds separate
The boundary needs to be visible to the buyer and to the team. On the public side, the calculator is labelled directional, the inputs are typical, the output is a band, and the page links to the project-specific path. On the internal side, the project-specific case lives in a different template, with named owners for each input and a date by which the case becomes the contractual basis of conversation. Sales material that quotes a directional number in a procurement document is sent back. Project-specific numbers that drift onto the public site without anonymisation are sent back. The boundary is small, but the credibility it preserves is large. The discipline is, in effect, that the public framework belongs to the buyer and the project-specific case belongs to the project. Mixing them is what loses trust. The clearest signal of a healthy practice is that the public page becomes less impressive over time, not more. As real cases accumulate, the directional band narrows toward the centre of mass of those cases, and the headline figure becomes less startling. That is the right direction. A public number that becomes more impressive over time is being marketed; a public number that stabilises is being maintained. Buyers feel the difference within a single visit, even if they could not articulate it. Reviewers internal to the buyer feel it more strongly still. The maintained number is the one the case will be tested against, and it should be the one being maintained.
Practice
01. Open a directional ROI calculator (your own or a comparable one). Note three assumptions that would change in a project-specific model and the direction each one would move the result.
Look for: Three named inputs — typically loaded rate, reporting frequency, and the proportion of workflows replaced — with a one-line note on whether the project-specific value is likely to push the result up or down.
02. Draft the disclaimer paragraph that should accompany a public directional figure. It should be short, plain, and explicit about what the number is and is not.
Look for: Three to five sentences. States that the figure is directional. Names the typical assumptions used. Promises a project-specific refinement before any procurement decision. Avoids hedging language that reads as marketing.
Checkpoint
When you have used directional numbers in a buyer conversation, did the page they read also publish the disclosure that project-specific data would refine them?
Recommended reading