A point estimate of return is a strong claim. A band is a careful claim. The first invites a fight about a single number. The second invites a fight about which end of the band the project should aim for. The second is the more useful conversation.
Why a band reads better
A band tells the reader that the author has thought about uncertainty. It quietly answers the question every CFO will ask: what assumptions would have to change for this number to break. A band also lets the buyer position themselves at the cautious end without having to argue down a headline.
- Publish low, mid, and high estimates with the same method.
- Tie each estimate to the assumption that drives it.
- Be explicit about which assumptions are project-specific and which are sector benchmarks.
- Update the band when better project data arrives, in writing.
“A defensible number is one the author would still publish if every assumption was challenged in turn.”
Field notes are part of the public RDI reference. For shorter definitions, use the glossary. For full reference articles, see the knowledge base.